Brexit 2019 and Poland

The evidence suggests that the EU27 from the beginning knew that the UK was weakened and somewhat shellshocked by the referendum result, and negotiated accordingly. The UK expected to be able to divide the EU by playing on internal divisions, and I think they didn't expect EU countries to put up a brick wall around Ireland's position with respects to the border.

About the interview you posted - it touches on the key point -


And I think this is true, and the biggest mistake that the EU made. In hindsight, sticking with the 9 members in 1973 and adding in a handful of others (Sweden, Austria, Finland, Estonia, Slovenia) would have made the most sense. There was way, way too much of a rush to expand to other countries, many of whom simply weren't ready or compatible with the original Franco-German alliance.

I have a book about EU expansion, written in 2000. It makes it clear that there are serious issues about the plans, and Poland in particular was nowhere near ready for membership. What changed between 2000 and 2004? Not much at all, really, and it wasn't as if the SLD government of the day was better than the previous AWS one.

And that's why we've seen the problems with rule of law etc over the last few years. The bottom line is that Poland was only a democracy for 13 years before joining the EU, that's simply not long enough.

Yup, same story as we've seen in Hungary, Romania and so on. Even when you look at Greece, the absurdity of letting them into the EU just 6 years after the end of the military dictatorship was madness.

What should have happened was for CEFTA to become a parallel version of the EU, with free trade between the two. Another 15-20 years of successful democracy/rule of law, and then it would have been time to discuss EU membership for them.

The lesson has been learnt now, but at what price?

What are you basing this on? Is there any evidence the EU has collectively learned anything?


Spain joined just 11 or so years after Franco's death (without a strong domestic opposition movement) and has done okay (not economically but politically).

The 2004 expansion (and the Euro) were hubris writ large but I dont' think anything has been learned...

The idea behind this was to further aid the establishment of democracy in Poland. Joining the EU helped Poland greatly economically, and there is hardly a better way to convince people of a new system than economic prosperity. Furthermore the EU was also thought of a last line of defence if there were ever attempts to subvert democracy and rule of law in Poland.

And to be fair, both of those calculations were correct. The mistake was to underestimate how much influence antidemocratic forces could wield via Poland in the EU.

Just ask Greece!

I think so, they were very cautious about Croatia's accession to the EU (because surprise, surprise, Romania and Bulgaria turned out to be nowhere near ready), and there's very little enthusiasm about further expansion in the Balkans. They're also proving to be remarkably unwilling to expand Schengen, no matter how much Croatia deludes itself otherwise.


I'm not sure I'd agree - they haven't really been able to deal with the Catalonian question in a mature way, and they only managed to deal with ETA because of events elsewhere. With the election coming up, if Vox end up forming part of the government, it'll be a huge question as to whether Spain will remain in the current place politically, or if it will slide back towards authoritarianism.

Having said this, Spanish politics do seem remarkably diverse right now in terms of represented views.

I still think the biggest mistakes that the architects of the EU made was in assuming that the Franco-German model could be successfully exported elsewhere. I think they had good intentions, but I think they were woefully ill-informed.

May is now offering Labour Leave constituencies 100 million pounds for their social projects to pass her deal today. Luckily the donkey that is the Labour Party will not be moving for such a rotten carrot.

This is getting step by step to the crux of the matter - which is a long extension. And ultimately, no Brexit:)

Greece' problems are down to their own politicians. Joining the EU and later the Euro pumped 100s of bns into this country. This money could have been used to modernize the country and its' economy. Instead Greek politicians wasted it on election gifts and useless projects (like the Olympic games). The EU could hardly have predictes such irresponsibility.

In a roundabout way yes.

Ex-EU leader (one of them) Martin Schulz openly admitted to german telly that nobody plans to take in the Balkan countries Serbia and Albania etc. anytime soon. Yes, the accession protocol has started and everything, but it will probably be a long drawn out maybe endless game like with Turkey.

The EU's appetite for taking in new dirt poor countries with a questionable/barely existing democratic experience including inheriting ethnical and/or border conflicts with their neighbours is exactly NIL. Especially now with one of the few net payers leaving. It would be a horrible exchange, Britain out but Albania in...

(That was probably also the answer to any ukrainian aspirations...)

Yes, the EU has learned the hard way!

The countries that allowed and encouraged Greece to join the euro share a lot of the blame. But still the question remains... the EU never counted on anything but prosperity and so when it didn't happen they were and remain cluless about how to deal with it.


You could actually make the argument (and I would) that the Catalonian problems are indirectly cause by Spain's EU aspirations. In the spirit of trying to live up to the principles governing the EU they foolish allowed an unprecedented degree of autonomy to Catalonia and the regional government used that to spend lots on regional media and an educational system that was based on 24/7 independence propaganda and anytime the money ran short blamed Madrid and almost half the duped public fell for it hook, line and sinker.

Brexit vote defeated, 344-286.

Heart before brain! The supporter of Greece's Euro membership were guided by romantic sentiment for Greece's place in Europe's history, not it's dreary present...won't happen again!

Their romantic sentiment has proven to be devastating for the Greek economy and social structures (and by extension Spain and Portugal and Italy - other countries that would have been far better off with their own currencies rather than the toxic German toy known as the Euro.


No deal exit, here we come! I do not trust the raving idiots in the British parliament to come up with any other solution.

May has made a fair point, following the latest rejection of the withdrawal agreement:

"I fear we are reaching the limits of this process in this house. This house has rejected no-deal. It has rejected no Brexit. On Wednesday it rejected all the variations of the deal on the table, and today it has rejected approving the Withdrawal Agreement alone and continuing a process on the future."

They'd better come up with some ideas in time to stop Brexit, no deal, on 12 April. Morawiecki said, before the vote, that Poland is open to an extension for the UK of up to 12 months btw.

Hindsight is always 20/20

It was a unique experiment without any former experience to learn from and the mentioned countries were so hot for the Euro (Greece even cooked the books), it would had been also difficult to say no without to hurt feelings and invoke the image of the arrogant German.

Well....lessons had been learnt, won't happen again!

Anyone who didn't realize at the time that they were cooking the books was and is a fool and those who are actually responsible for letting Greece (and Spain and Portugal) in should be in jail as they helped take food of the mouths of people there.

Not a bad guess. By the way Mafketis. you really don't understand the situation at all if you think parliament is going to allow a No Deal Brexit. I suggest you stop paying attention to right wing news channels if you want the true picture - which is a long extension, probably for a customs union/referendum confirmation.


Who gives one what that fokker says? Thanks anyway Atch - but he's going to be out, along with May, in November anyway:) :)

Spilled (spilt?) milk now...

Popcorn, anyone?

I'm not entirely sure it will be up to them alone....

So how do you understand the theory that it serves the EU's agenda to encourage a No Deal Brexit?

It clearly does not. The EU is subservent to the interests of its' member states, and none of them desire a no-deal Brexit. That being said those interests may make it even harder to reach a deal, because each country has red lines it does not want to cross (e.g. Ireland's border).

Tacticus - no politicians anywhere want to collectively admit that the referendum was a sham.
Cameron asked the electorate to back him, and frankly it's a mark of British restraint that the result wasn't a greater majority for Leave.

This mistaken idea of leaving the European Union just needs to be put on the back burner of history, lesson learnt, kiss and make up.

Europeans, one and all.

Firstly,you don't know that I voted Brexit,you just assumed that.
The British public,in the main,did not believe the lies both Brexiteers and Remainers were throwing at us.
So they made a judgement and voted.I never expected The EU to give us anything,so I voted expecting a No Deal Brexit.
What I did not expect was the abject incompetence of our government.....
As for Dirk,I never said he was a millionaire,you did.
If you had bothered to read my post properly,you would have noticed that I said that I did not know if his claims were true or not.

In any case,he was not claiming anything grand,just that his family were "comfortable".
And it didn't matter anyway,because my point was about the comments from other posters,which displayed a degree of jealousy.
What is a millionaire anyway?No big deal.
I live in a leafy London suburb.Nowhere near central London.You could not buy a house in my road for a million pounds.....
I am not showing off,these are nice houses,but nothing special,4 bed detached.
But that is my house......I can't spend that money.
As for Rich,I know he is who says he is....if you choose to disbelieve him,that is your problem,not mine.
You accuse me of being gullible,but you make too many mistakes to be trustworthy.

Whatever Barry Gardiner says, Labour IS the Remainer Party
I will be putting my shirt on a Labour hung parliament in a General Election, as people clearly do NOT want BREXIT according to every single leading and credible poll.

Ironic that people will have to escape to Democratic and free Poland to escape communist Britain under labour.

Comrad corbyn keeping the red flag flying

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Don't be bloody stupid. Poles are in Britain to make a better life for themselves, and very welcome they are too, for they raise Britain's GDP. A perfect symbiosis. A Britain under Labour is far to the right of a socialist PIS ridden Poland. You don't know what the fukk you are talking about. I have had to pay a collective 2,800 zl in ZUS for 20 years irrespective of what I earnt month to month as a sole trader because Poland is a socialist state.

Now go and do one. You are boring me.

I have met Barry Gardiner,many years ago,before he put on that false voice.
He was a twat then and he is still a twat now.


Sorry Doug,but gotta agree with Dolno.....a Socialist Britain under these Marxists,Trotskyites and even Stalin defenders would be intolerable.
Luckily,the British people are not stupid enough to vote for them in sufficient numbers....if I am wrong,I will emigrate,probably to Poland.

I wasn't on about Poles, where in my post did I mention Poles?. I was talking about Brits having to leave Britain rather than living under the extreme soviet led Labour party, under the red flag.

I wonder what people would make of a political leader speaking to a group holding similar extremist Nazi flags .

I can see a new Iron curtain around Britain under the new extremist labour government.


I am not here posting solely for your benefit so kindly refrain using personal and childish remarks.

As for Poles in Britain they can return as and when they wish, sadly if no deal then British people could find themselves trapped under the red flag for decades, oh the irony.