Brexit 2019 and Poland

Then let's treat it as the very unique case it is.... an uncontrolled border between the EU and a non-EU country and continue with the status quo.


I understand, it's in the position it is in currently because financial elites in the EU and UK don't want it to happen and are determined to prevent it. And, I think maybe the Irish (for very good reasons) are relishing this chance to make life difficult for the UK (as they say, payback is a b!tch)


Then the best thing to do is give them what they voted for and wait a bit.

Mafeketis has some interesting and resoned debate, but his intellect goes to his own head sometimes and he believes that he knows what he's talking about, when here he clearly has an axe to grind, because of some Irish background he isn't telling us about.

I have Irish ancestry through a grandparent, and so have a vested interest (as well as being British). On the other hand I couldn't really give a **** about Trump and the idiot Americans who elected him, so tend not to pollute USA threads with my ignorance of the facts..

The question is why Maf follows such an agenda in this thread, and from a wholly ignorant position, and he is happy not to do his otherwise logical search of evidence and justification, but just trots out the right-wing mantra of "an alternative can be found to the Backstop, and if it isn't, the Irish border isn't such a big deal anyway and Ireland is simply being bloody intransigent".

However the Polish-Ukraine border is a big deal. Lol.

It is not like any border between two developed countries - it's the scene of I think the only armed conflict in Western Europe since the war.

A few weeks ago they were getting upset stabbing and throwing Molotov cocktails because they were not allowed to build a bonfire in their favorite place, god knows how they will react to either a border in the Irish Sea or one in Northerm Ireland.

There ar3 by the way about 50 Tories who won't vote for the agreement even if the backstop is dropped - because Boris promised them during his election that the whole agreement was dead

Then let's treat it that way! Let's not change anything at the border.... what precisely is the problem with that? What concrete problems would arise? If the UK doesn't mind people and products crossing the border then why should Ireland or the rest of the EU?

I keep hearing 'complicated' and 'complex' 'oooh my, that would never work!' but no explanation.

What's the elevator pitch for not just leaving the border be?

(I don't care how complicated the political problem.... the solution can always be expressed as an elevator pitch)

So let's have open borders to all the EU:) Look Maf, we all know that you Yanks want the EU to disappear, but would we meet with a reasoned response if we Eruropeans suggested you have an open border with Mexico? What's the difference? whether you like it or not, educated Mexicans are every bit Americanised as you are, yet you all seem to hate them so much.

The difference is that a Brit doesn't crash in your border discussion - so do again tell us why you are so interested here - if it not be for the fact that you clearly want a weakened EU, while all the time enjoying the relative prosperity that the EU has brought to Poland, kick starting it's economy.

You remember small town Poland shiithole (as you Americans term places) pre 2004, don't you?
Up the EU, up Macron,and to hell with Johnson. There - I feel better now!

You have had the elevator pitch several times but either ignore it or don't understand it.

Here it is - lets assume a 40 storey elevator to the bar at the top of the Marriott.

Goods (and people) could flow tariff free from the EU into the UK - not acceptable to the hard right in the UK
the UK producers would however face tariffs into the EU - a huge disadvantage
So you would need a border in the Irish sea to prevent 1 and 2
But the Irish DUP protestant party would not agree to that - its a life or death issue for them
they are propping up the Conservative govt - without their 10 votes there is no majority for Brexit
So the solution is an election that would put Scottish independence back on the table.

Got it ? Now ask for a 20 zloty Guinness up there and think it over !

In reality not everything can be understood in an elevator pitch or in one page - whoever wrote down that aphorism probably made a lot of cash but wont be the person paying the price for this screwup.

Well I do have some Scotch-Irish ancestry (though I'm not clear on the details)


No, the only land border post Brexit UK would have with the EU would be Ireland...and I can't think of any good reasons why that's a problem (beyond people wanting it to be a problem).

It would be a new situation for the EU but... cool. If the EU can't deal with new and novel situations then what purpose does it serve?


I'm from the South so I think of "Yank" as kind of insulting... but be that as it may, I'm a big supporter of the EU in theory. Before the 2008 financial crisis it had done more than any institution in history to eradicate poverty. Massive wonderful achievement.

But it's hard to think of a whole lot of good its done since then. It's saddled itself with the horrible pseudo currency known as the Euro and it has nothing to offer the southern countries anymore beyond permanent austerity, depopulation and exploitation. It's become a vehicle for northern colonization of the south. How is that good?

The Dublin convention on refugees completely fell apart the first time it was used and what has the EU done since to make it more functional? Jack all.

And, it's clear to anyone paying attention the EU can't really do much anymore beyond create bureaucracies that don't actually do anything beyond generating regulations...

Has RODO made your internet use any more secure or convenient? It's made a lot of US media unavailable to me and made me click many more 'accept' buttons than I had to before. Yay?

I want to like the EU but in its current form it's just a giant dinosaur incapable of adapting to changing circumstances (and still going down the path of ever greater integration despite most people in most countries wanting no such thing).

I was hoping that Brexit would be a wake up call and that the EU would respond with flexibility and innovation, but that. has. not. happened.

I'm in favor of democracy - and the EU is less and less about that and more about rule by technocrats who are isolated from the populations they are supposed to represent.

Have you watched the Spanish series La casa de papel? (Dom z papieru in Polish, stupid boring English title: Money heist) it's being advertised all over Poland

Supposedly it was popular in Ireland (I don't know if it was shown with subtitles or in the English dubbed version....)

It's obviously a metaphor of the EU and Spain and the Euro and the theme is: economic plans that don't take human nature into account will always fail


so? start doing nothing and monitor the situation if the border becomes a point of smuggling eu goods into the UK then both sides at ground level have broken the spirit of good friday and the border will have to be tightened...


so? that would just reduce export to Ireland, if that's a problem for Ireland maybe they can be bothered to contribute to a solution

you make the EU sound like a giant Roach Motel - countries check in.... but they don't check out.

youtube.com/watch?v=jKhGHxO-woc

No it would reduce exports to the whole EU - they would face tariffs for the entire EU. That is 45% of British exports and absolutely key for many industries

And this is the problem with trying to explain it to you because you seem unable to connect the dots and simply don't understand - same as 90% of leave voters. In your case there is nothing at stake, in that case they will lose their jobs.

that's an argument against Brexit not the Irish border....


well that's how democracy is supposed to work - make a bad choice and deal with the consequences...

So maybe it's your turn to make an elevator pitch

There were two democratic exercises.

In 2016 the Brexit referendum, 33 million voters.

In 2017 the general election, 32 million voters, the result effectively nixed Brexit

In both cases the manifestoes and promises of both sides contained many demonstrable lines.

Which of these two elections is the more democratic and the more valid? I'm pressing the sliding doors now :))

My elevator pitch:
If the 2017 election wasn't put to the voters as a referendum on Brexit then Brexit still stands.The EU won't renegotiate so hard Brexit it is. Let's just ignore the Irish border for the time being. If the EU wants to create a hard border then that's its problem. If the border becomes a problem in terms of the illicit transport of people and goods then that's the time to do something.

Ah, for the Lord's sake! Now I understand - or I think I do. You're descended from Ulster Protestants!! No wonder you can't understand the Irish border issue :-)

When you say Scotch-Irish, do you mean Irish of Scottish descent or do you mean two ancestors, one Scottish and one Irish? Because if it's Irish of Scottish descent, then that's Ulster-Scots as they call themselves and although there are some moderate ones, a fair number of them are basically living back in the 1690s. I'm really not joking. I know that some of them emigrated to America over the years and sometimes refer to themselves as Orange Irish. You should read about why they call themselves that.

Anyway, the suggestion of the UK doing nothing about the border is silly and childish. I know governments frequently do sod all about important issues ,but basically trying to pretend that the border doesn't exist or that the UK is still in the EU is hardly the act of a politically mature state. It's Banana Republic stuff - and also unworkable when you get to the nitty gritty of cross border services such as the police, health service, the Peace Programme etc.

I'm providing a link to the 156 areas of cross-border cooperation which have to be maintained after Brexit. It demonstrates clearly the magnitude of the complexity of the border issue.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/762820/Technical_note-_North-South_cooperation_mapping_exercise__2_.pdf

It's an American term, according to wikipedia elsehwere they're called "Ulster Scots". It's one of the more important immigrant groups forming American identity... but I didn't grow up with that heritage anymore than German (majority of my ancestry) or Greek (possible origin of my last name) or Amerindian (probable but not confirmed).


Well on the one hand you say doing something about the border would be potentially dangerous etc and not doing something about the border is silly and childish... I'll take silly and childish over dangerous.

The Irish can't have it both ways - they can't maintain the open border status quo and support the EU "there will no more negotiations" policy. The withdrawal agreement is dead, the EU won't renegotiate and that leaves hard brexit. The UK can either ignore the Irish border or stitch it up. Which do you want?

Of course I think ultimately that the UK won't leave but not for any good reasons (but because the bankers who control us all won't let it happen) and the cost of keeping it in the EU (both in the UK and wider EU) will ultimately be higher than letting it go now....

Sorry, but it's nothing to do with us. It's the UK, who want people to facilitate them, not the Irish asking other people for something. Quite simply, there is no way, given the peculiarities of the Northern Ireland/Republic of Ireland situation, to have a border. So, NI needs to have a 'special' status which is what the backstop is about. It acknowledges the difference between NI and the rest of the UK. That's why it makes the Unionists so angry, well the DUP anyway.


But it's in your genes and maybe it explains your blind spot. With your attitude to 'the Irish' you sound more like a member of the DUP than you realize.

I do have to admit the first time I heard Ian Paisley I was overcome by strong emotions I'd never felt before, a kind of.... glow started to grow in my heart... I felt a strange kind of desire to take all my money out of the bank... so I could donate it to the IRA. I quickly came to mys senses but... I can't think of any ulster protestant spokesperson that made any kind of positive impression on me.


marked by an open border - if it doesn't bother then why should it bother the EU?

My proposal is hard brexit with the UK keeping the status quo with the Irish border as long as there's no problem.

Should problems occur, then.. that would be time to rethink things (including perhaps unilaterally handing off Ulster to Eire - which I think should have happened a long, long time ago). I can't think of any useful purpose it serves for the UK, maybe Ireland can do something with it.

That is impossible. Hard brexit means high taxes on goods and differenf standards. Without a border it would be high life for criminals.

Can't do that. The whole point of the Good Friday Agreement is that unity only comes about by decision of the people of both parts of the island, following a border poll, and that won't happen anytime soon. It will only happen if the Irish government believes that the result would be around 90% in favour in the Republic and at least 70% in the North. Also, it will only happen after an All-Ireland forum where the terms of a future new state of Ireland would be discussed and laid out in detail, so that people know what it is they're voting for. We're not as daft as the English, you know :)

Btw, It's not Ulster. Ulster is a whole province. Northern Ireland comprises only six of the counties of Ulster.

I, for one, don't think that Ireland is full of criminals...


Well that might be over if the EU insists on a hard border.

I will say that 'okazja czyni zlodzieja'. And of course it's not only about Irish . But if you think criminals won't jump on the opportunity to earn on that you are delusional. The difference in prices will be huge and if we add the shortages that the government is expecting you have a breeding ground for smugglers.

@mafketis

You have done a great job arguing against all these EU loving leftie luvvies, who are so blinkered that they won't open their eyes to other possibilities.

But that is the problem.
These people have views that are so entrenched that they don't even consider some of your suggestions.
So you will hit a continuous back wall of intolerance.
The worst is atch.
She is so blinkered that she won't even discuss certain subjects.
I know,I have been there with her.
Bottom line is, Brexit is happening, like it or not, maybe with a deal, but probably not.
Like The Millenium Bug, it will not cause the chaos that Remainers predict and Great Britain will not impose a hard border in Ireland.
It remains to be seen if The EU, for all their "tough" talking dare to impose a hard border.
I bet they don't......

Well, your own government is not too positive about the no deal Brexit so how do you expext people to be so? Oh I forgot, you probably have better data than them

I argue from the perspective, not of an EU lover, but from that of an ordinary Irish person. Brexit, for Ireland and the Irish people, is not about the EU or the UK. It's about Ireland, north and south and the effect Brexit will have on us, on our economy, on our society.


There will be no physical infrastructure put in place on the Irish border by any Irish government. Checks on goods and livestock that can be done away from the immediate vicinity of the border will be done. But the livestock poses a problem.

Personally, I don't think it is. But this is not related to what citizens want or don't want. The elite financial interests that rule the UK and the EU don't want it and so it won't happen. I think that will ultimately be a mistake and the cost of the UK staying (in morale in and out of the EU) will turn out to be greater than the expense of expediting Brexit would have been.... but the banks don't care.

The Brexit vote will ultimately be seen as the first step away from neoliberalism, just as Thatcher becoming PM was the beginning. The EU has become a leading agent of neliberalism and will have to let go of some of that in order to thrive.

@atch

But this is the point.
You are making this "all about me", when actually,it has nothing to do with you at all.
You will suffer considerable "collateral damage",but it still has nothing to do with The Irish.


I agree with most of your posts.
But you are wrong here.
Brexit will happen, because it has to.
British democracy depends on it.


And I think The EU are slowly coming to understand this but far too slowly........The EU has had it's day and the recession that is coming will probably kill it off.

Thank God!

Right. I thought it was Brexit that was going to start the collapse - 3 and a bit years later nobody else is thinking of leaving.

The tanking pound tells you who the markets think will be most affected

The EU has less and less to do with anything like democracy.... remember how the results of two separate elections within one year (in Greece) were simply set aside?

I think the EU has been an amazing achievement in many ways, I'd like to see it revert back to being useful by ramping down the creation of new bureaucracies for the sake of ever more integration that most citizens in most countries don't want. But that's not the way it's trending at present...


I don't see the EU falling apart from countries leaving... I see two trends

-the creation of bureaucracy for the sake of bureaucracy, ever more alienated from and indifferent to what citizens want and/or need

-ever more reactive and unable to respond in anything like a timely fashion to events affecting it (oh there was just an earthquake in Italy... let's create a Europe Wide earthquake detection and response task force employing thousands of people to no discernible end beyond requiring countries where earthquakes are not a major issue, like Poland, to retrofit all existing buildings to new EU earthquake building standards)

The current model of the EU is a sugar daddy taking care of his children by giving them treats and/or very mild punishments when they misbehave... I think that's kind of sick.

We all make fun of the Polish voters lining up to vote themselves more benefits by returning PiS to office but what difference is there between that and remainers motivated entirely by money questions?

As I've said I'm a massive fan of the EU from 12 or so years ago but its current incarnation is ever more meddlesome in the internal affairs of countries and individuals.

This old lie again? The Greeks were told that they had 2 options: Implement austerity or leave the Euro. Syriza told the Greeks that there was a third option: No austerity and keep the Euro. The creditors told Greece during the election and the referendum that Syriza lied, and that there would be no renegotiation.The Greeks were free to choose their own way, but the democratically elected governments of the creditor nations were under no obligation to conceed to Greek demands. Syriza could have made good on their word by stopping austerity and leaving the Euro, but since the vast majority of Greeks wanted to keep it, they gave in. That is one thing that can be used to defend Syriza, they were not as stupidly irresponsible as the Brexiteers. They did not drive their country over a cliff purely out of spite.

There is a contradiction there.... can you spot it?

The Greek fondness for the Euro is like a battered woman who won't testify against her abusive husband... it can't work out but they're holding on for some reason.

They need to be encouraged/forced out (along with other service economies like Portugal and Spain). As currently structured the Euro for them is a debt trap waiting to happen and a German recession (probably on the way pretty soon) is just going to make the sh1t show all the sh1ttier....

Well, it does because all those born in Northern Ireland are Irish citizens by birth. That's the legal position. They are all entitled to Irish passports and many already hold them. They will remain both Irish and EU citizens after Brexit. This is a whole other can of worms which hasn't yet been fully addressed though there has been a bit of discussion about it.

I agree on your first point - bureaucracies reproduce themselves and Europe is no different.

On the second point I disagree - building and other petty trading regulations are jealously guarded by local and national govts mainly because of the opportunity for job creation and corrupt local officials. EU money and tenders have had rather a positive effect than a negative effect in these cases