A chaotic Brexit will almost certainly push Yes over the 50% barrier.
Yes, that's the key really. Scotland is an interesting case because it threw its lot in with England three hundred years ago and has largely benefited as a result unlike Ireland who kept fighting and rebelling and was punished accordingly :) So, this is a turning point for Scotland where the price of Union with the English Crown has two effects:
1) Brings home to the Scottish people their lack of sovereignty, in that they chose to remain in the EU but must leave because the English people want to.
2) Their ties to England may lead to a loss of material wealth and lower their standard of living, whereas in the past it has done the opposite.
Actually the Act of Union between Scotland and England back in 1707 or thereabouts, lead to a much stronger economy for both countries at that time. That's what I mean when I say that the United Kingdom has run its course as a political entity. With the Union of European nations, we've moved on, and an alliance between Scotland and England is no longer necessary for the people of Scotland. Scotland could certainly function independently in every sense as it's an advanced society and established democracy which knows how to govern itself. The only, and of course not inconsiderable hurdle is economic, but if the UK leaves the EU, then Scotland is in a much better position for acceptance into the EU than many of the other nations currently hoping to gain admission.